Suzana J Camargo, Andrew W Robertson, Scott J Gaffney, Padhraic Smyth, and Michael Ghil (2005)
Cluster analysis of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, IRI Technical Report(05-03), Columbia University, New York.
A new probabilistic clustering technique, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe
tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories in the western North Pacific (WNP). Each component of the
mixture model consists of a quadratic regression curve of cyclone position against time. The best
track 1950–2002 data set is described by seven distinct clusters. These clusters are then analyzed
in terms of genesis location, trajectory, landfall, intensity, and seasonality.
Both genesis location and trajectory play important roles in defining the clusters. Several distinct
types of straight-moving, as well as recurving trajectories are identified, thus enriching this
main distinction found in previous studies. Intensity and seasonality of cyclones, though not used
by the clustering algorithm, are both highly stratified from cluster to cluster. Three straight-moving
trajectory types have very small within-cluster spread, while the recurving types are more diffuse.
Tropical cyclone landfalls over East and Southeast Asia are found to be strongly cluster dependent,
both in terms of frequency and region of impact.
The large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature associated with
each of the clusters are investigated, as well as associations with the phase of the El Nino-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO). Composite wind-field maps over the WNP provide a physically consistent
picture of each TC type, and of its seasonality. Anomalous vorticity and outgoing long wave
radiation indicate changes in the monsoon trough associated with different types of TC genesis
and trajectory. The steering winds at 500 hPa are more zonal in the straight-moving clusters, with
larger meridional components in the recurving ones. Higher values of vertical wind shear in the
mid-latitudes also accompany the straight-moving tracks, compared to the recurving ones.
The influence of ENSO on TC activity over the WNP is clearly discerned in specific clusters.
Two of the seven clusters are typical of El Nino events; their genesis locations are shifted southeastward
and they are more intense. The largest cluster is recurving, located northwestward, and
occurs more often during La Nina events. Two types of recurving and one of straight-moving
tracks occur preferentially when the Madden-Julian oscillation is active over the WNP region.