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Suzana J Camargo, Andrew W Robertson, Scott J Gaffney, Padhraic Smyth, and Michael Ghil (2005)

Cluster analysis of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks

International Research Institute for Climate and Society, IRI Technical Report(05-03), Columbia University, New York.

A new probabilistic clustering technique, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories in the western North Pacific (WNP). Each component of the mixture model consists of a quadratic regression curve of cyclone position against time. The best track 1950–2002 data set is described by seven distinct clusters. These clusters are then analyzed in terms of genesis location, trajectory, landfall, intensity, and seasonality. Both genesis location and trajectory play important roles in defining the clusters. Several distinct types of straight-moving, as well as recurving trajectories are identified, thus enriching this main distinction found in previous studies. Intensity and seasonality of cyclones, though not used by the clustering algorithm, are both highly stratified from cluster to cluster. Three straight-moving trajectory types have very small within-cluster spread, while the recurving types are more diffuse. Tropical cyclone landfalls over East and Southeast Asia are found to be strongly cluster dependent, both in terms of frequency and region of impact. The large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature associated with each of the clusters are investigated, as well as associations with the phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composite wind-field maps over the WNP provide a physically consistent picture of each TC type, and of its seasonality. Anomalous vorticity and outgoing long wave radiation indicate changes in the monsoon trough associated with different types of TC genesis and trajectory. The steering winds at 500 hPa are more zonal in the straight-moving clusters, with larger meridional components in the recurving ones. Higher values of vertical wind shear in the mid-latitudes also accompany the straight-moving tracks, compared to the recurving ones. The influence of ENSO on TC activity over the WNP is clearly discerned in specific clusters. Two of the seven clusters are typical of El Nino events; their genesis locations are shifted southeastward and they are more intense. The largest cluster is recurving, located northwestward, and occurs more often during La Nina events. Two types of recurving and one of straight-moving tracks occur preferentially when the Madden-Julian oscillation is active over the WNP region.
 
von Colin StarkZuletzt verändert: 23.01.2006 12:22

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